Agricultural Economics

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and historical periods, it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost estimates used to decide whether such projects should be built are highly and systematically misleading. Underestimation cannot be explained by error and is best explained by strategic misrepresentation, that is, lying. The policy implications are clear: legislators, administrators, investors, media representatives, and members of the public who value honest numbers should not trust cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts.

T his article presents the case for investing more in young American children who grow up in disadvantaged environments. Figure 1 graphs time series of alternative measures of the percentage of children in disadvantaged families. The percentage of children born into, or living in, nontraditional families has increased greatly in the past thirty years. 1,2 Approximately 25% of children are now born into single parent homes. While the percentages of children living in poverty and born into poor families have fallen recently, they are still high, especially among certain subgroups. Adverse environments place children at risk for social and economic failure. The accident of birth plays a powerful role in determining adult success. 3 Many have commented on this phenomenon, and most analyses have cast the issue of assisting children from disadvantaged families as a question of fairness or social justice. This article makes a different argument. We argue that, on productivity grounds, it makes sense to invest in young children from disadvantaged environments. Substantial evidence shows that these children are more likely to commit crime, have out-of-wedlock births, and drop out of school. Early interventions that partially remediate the effects of adverse environments can reverse some of the harm of disadvantage and have a high economic return. They benefit not only the children themselves, but also their children, as well as society at large. Investing in disadvantaged young children is a rare public policy with no equity-efficiency tradeoff. It reduces the inequality associated with the accident of birth and at the same time raises the productivity of society at large.

he diversity of rural livelihoods in low income developing countries is receiving increased attention in discussions about rural poverty reduction. This paper explores just one facet of livelihood diversity, name& the reasons for households to adqbt multiple livelihood strategies.

This research is an attempt to determine the magnitude and the direction to which the level of transactions costs influence
changes in maize supply in Oyo state of Nigeria. Multistage random sampling technique was employed to select 220 maize
producing farmers for the study. Data for the study were collected using structured interview schedule and analyzed using
descriptive statistics and estimation of Cobb-Douglas regression model. The result showed that mean age for respondents was
45.8 years, while more than half of them were literates. The major source of finance for the farmers was personal savings,
while the mean land area cultivated was 2.2 ha. The results of the regression analysis showed that significant relationships
exist between transactions costs and agricultural household supply response in the study area. The average fixed and
proportional transaction costs were N2960.82 and N15906.58, respectively. We conclude that in addition to price factor,
transactions costs contribute significantly to agricultural household supply decisions and consequently recommend that
policies that reduce transactions costs should be formulated and implemented to enhance the level of food security in Nigeria.
© 2011 Friends Science Publishers
Key Words: Transactions costs; Supply response; Maize farmers; Food security

Birds are one of the most diverse groups of ecosystem
service providers, whose ecological functions range
from creating soil to shaping primate behavior, Nevertheless,
the impression that birds have little influence on
ecological processes has been hard to change. Given the
ongoing declines in avian functional groups, there is a
pressing need to compare avian ecological functions to
those of other taxa, to understand how these functions
translate to ecosystem services and to estimate the
ecological implications of bird declines. Here, I review
the ecological functions of birds, link them to ecosystem
services and outline research priorities for understanding
avian contributions to ecosystem functioning.

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. Our article shows how planners may help achieve this.

Agricultural price booms are better explained by common factors than by market-specific factors such as supply shocks. A capital asset pricing model-type model shows why one should expect this and Granger causality analysis establishes the role of demand growth, monetary expansion and exchange rate movements in explaining price movements over the period since 1971. The demand for grains and oilseeds as biofuel feedstocks has been cited as the main cause of the price rise, but there is little direct evidence for this contention. Instead, indexbased investment in agricultural futures markets is seen as the major channel through which macroeconomic and monetary factors generated the 2007-2008 food price rises.

Why do men and women adopt agricultural technologies at different rates? Evidence from Ghana suggests that gender-linked differences in the adoption of modern maize varieties and chemical fertilizer are not attributable to inherent characteristics of the technologies themselves but instead result from gender-linked differences in access to key inputs.

In this paper we examine levels and trends in agricultural output and productivity in 93 developed and developing countries that account for a major portion of the world population and agricultural output. We make use of data drawn from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and our study covers the period 1980-2000. Due to the non-availability of reliable input price data, the study uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to derive Malmquist productivity indexes. The study examines trends in agricultural productivity over the period. Issues of catch-up and convergence, or in some cases possible divergence, in productivity in agriculture are examined within a global framework. The paper also derives the shadow prices and value shares that are implicit in the DEA-based Malmquist productivity indices, and examines the plausibility of their levels and trends over the study period.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Agricultural science and technology (S&T) is under great scrutiny. Reorientation towards more holistic approaches, including agroecology, has recently been backed by a global international assessment of agriculture S&T for development (IAASTD). Understanding the past and current trends of agricultural S&T is crucial if such recommendations are to be implemented. This paper shows how the concepts of
technological paradigms and trajectories can help analyse the agricultural S&T landscape and dynamics. Genetic engineering and agroecology can be usefully analysed as two different technological paradigms, even though they have not been equally successful in influencing agricultural research. We used a Systems of Innovation (SI) approach to identify the determinants of innovation (the factors that influence
research choices) within agricultural research systems. The influence of each determinant is systematically described (e.g. funding priorities, scientists’ cognitive and cultural routines etc.). As a result of their interactions, these determinants construct a technological regime and a lock-in situation that hinders the development of agroecological engineering. Issues linked to breaking out of this lock-in situation are finally discussed.

This article examines new agricultural cooperative organizational models from an ownership rights perspective. The article adopts a definition of ownership rights comprising both residual claim and control rights. We argue that new cooperative organizational models differ in how ownership rights are assigned to the economic agents (members, patrons, and investors) tied contractually to the firm. The article proposes a typology of discrete organizational models, in which the traditional cooperative structure and the investor-oriented firm are characterized as polar forms. The typology also includes five nontraditional models that cooperatives may adopt to ameliorate perceived financial constraints.

This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank's LINKAGE model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries)

Policy makers and interest groups have many questions about the use of improved technologies in developing country agriculture. These include the roles of policies, institutions, and infrastructure in the adoption of improved technologies and their impact on productivity and welfare. Most micro-level adoption studies, however, cannot address these important policy issues. Drawing on an extensive review of the literature on the adoption of agricultural technologies, this article suggests alternative approaches for designing technology adoption studies to make them useful for policy makers. It explores the generic limitations of cross-sectional adoption studies carried out in small numbers of communities and discusses some problems faced in conducting such studies. Recommendations include the use of sampling approaches that allow data from microstudies to be generalized to higher levels of aggregation, adherence to clearly defined terms that are standardized across studies, and careful examination of the assumptions that often underlie such studies.

Feder, Murgai, and Quizon evaluate the impact of the period 1991-99 in Indonesia. Their analysis, farmer field schools, an intensive participatory training employing a modified "difference-in-differences" model, program emphasizing integrated pest management. Their indicates that the program did not have significant effects evaluation focuses on whether participation in the on the performance of graduates and their neighbors. program has improved yields and reduced pesticide use

The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequences are cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost–benefit analysis are described, including that such analysis is not to be trusted for major infrastructure projects. Fourth, the article uncovers the causes of this state of affairs in terms of perverse incentives that encourage promoters to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in the business cases for their projects. But the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality. The article depicts this situation as ‘survival of the unfittest’. Fifth, the article sets out to explain how the problem may be solved, with a view to arriving at more efficient and more democratic projects, and avoiding the scandals that often accompany major infrastructure investments. Finally, the article identifies current trends in major infrastructure development. It is argued that a rapid increase in stimulus spending, combined with more investments in emerging economies, combined with more spending on information technology is catapulting infrastructure investment from the frying pan into the fire.

This paper offers an overview for a special issue on agroindustrialization, globalization, and international development. It out a conceptual framework for understanding the links among these three broad phenomena and then discusses emerging issues and evidence concerning the factors conditioning agroindustrialization in developing countries and the subsequent effects on employment, poverty, and the natural environment. We conclude with a research agenda.

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure developments pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, it explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not those of their competition, that gain approval and funding. This results in the ‘survival of the unfittest’, in which often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, it presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance structures, the latter being more important.

Reducing the use of non-renewable fossil energy reserves together with improving the environment are two important reasons that drive interest in the use of bioethanol as an automotive fuel. Conversion of sugar and starch to ethanol has been proven at an industrial scale in Brazil and the United States, respectively, and this alcohol has been able to compete with conventional gasoline due to various incentives. In this paper, we examined making ethanol from the sugar extracted from the juice of sweet sorghum and/ or from the hemicellulose and cellulose in the residual sorghum bagasse versus selling the sugar from the juice or burning the bagasse to make electricity in four scenarios in the context of North China. In general terms, the production of ethanol from the hemicellulose and cellulose in bagasse was more favorable than burning it to make power, but the relative merits of making ethanol or sugar from the juice was very sensitive to the price of sugar in China. This result was confirmed by both process economics and analysis of opportunity costs. Thus, a flexible plant capable of making both sugar and fuel-ethanol from the juice is recommended. Overall, ethanol production from sorghum bagasse appears very favorable, but other agricultural residues such as corn stover and rice hulls would likely provide a more attractive feedstock for making ethanol in the medium and long term due to their extensive availability in North China and their independence from other markets. Furthermore, the process for residue conversion was based on particular design assumptions, and other technologies could enhance competitiveness while considerations such as perceived risk could impede applications.

Studies on input adoption consider education as one of the most important factors that affect adoption decisions. However, very little is known about the spill-over effect of intra-household education on the adoption process and about the impact of education on adoption decisions under different socioeconomic conditions. We investigate these two issues using a discrete choice model. The results indicate that the decision making process is a decentralised one in which educated adult members of the household actively participate in the decision making process. This casts doubt on the traditional assumption that the household head is the sole decision maker. The results reveal that there is a substantial and statistically significant intra-household spill-over effect of education on the adoption decision of households. The results of the study also show that the coefficient of the education and the environment interaction variable is negative and statistically significant. This demonstrates that education and socioeconomic environments could be substitutes in modern environments and complementary in traditional ones. This implies that the expansion of education in traditional areas may be more attractive than in modern areas since education is usually the only means to enhance the ability of farmers to acquire, synthesise and respond to innovations such as chemical fertiliser.

This article analyses the mechanisms behind changes in agricultural land use. Intensification of land use on the one hand, and abandonment on the other have had important consequences for landscape and biodiversity. The basic mechanism behind it is a change in the relative prices of inputs and output. In this sense the general economic developments have been determining the changes in agricultural land use. In Western Europe, the rapid increase in the opportunity costs of labour was the main factor behind mechanisation and intensification of agriculture. Also, the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU has stimulated intensification. Recent policy developments have cut down important incentives for further intensification. This, however, does not solve the problem of the decline of low input agricultural systems in Europe. The only way to maintain them is by specific nature-enhancing policies.

Population increase and the improvement of living standards brought about by development will result in a sharp increase in food demand during the next decades. Most of this increase will be met by the products of irrigated agriculture. At the same time, the water input per unit irrigated area will have to be reduced in response to water scarcity and environmental concerns. Water productivity is projected to increase through gains in crop yield and reductions in irrigation water. In order to meet these projections, irrigation systems will have to be modernized and optimized. Water productivity can be defined in a number of ways, although it always represents the output of a given activity (in economic terms, if possible) divided by some expression of water input. The authors identified five expressions for this indicator, using different approaches to water input. A hydrological analysis of water productivity poses a number of questions on the choice of the water input expression, since in many cases irrigation return flows can not be considered as a net water loss from a basin-wide perspective. A number of irrigation modernization and optimization measures are discussed in the paper. Particular attention is paid to the improvement of irrigation management, which shows much better economic return than the improvement of the irrigation structures. In closed basins the hydrological effects of these improvements may be deceiving, since they will be accompanied by larger crop evapotranspiration and even increased cropping intensity. As a consequence, less water will be available for alternative uses.

Slash-and-burn agriculture continues to expand in many parts of the forest zone of Cameroon. One alternative land use to slash-and-burn system is alley farming. This paper quantifies, using an econometric model, the factors determining farmers' adoption and use of alley farming variants in southwest of Cameroon, based on a survey of 156 farmers in 11 villages in the region.

We apply recent advances in propensity-score matching (PSM) to the problem of estimating the dis-tribution of net income gains from an Argentinean workfare program. PSM has a number of attractive features in this context, including the need to allow for heterogeneous ...

A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called "reference class forecasting," which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed.

Public policy in developing countries has failed to invest in educating farmers on how to deal with variable agro-ecosystems and a changing world. Here we present an assessment of a participatory training approach in changing crop protection by farmers from chemically dependent, to more sustainable practices in line with the tenets of Integrated Pest Management (IPM). We review the evidence from the studies on an educational investment designed to capacitate farmers to apply IPM, and discuss these data in the light of an on-going policy debate concerning cost effectiveness. The results indicate substantial immediate and developmental benefits of participation in Farmer Field Schools.

Despite having a more advanced water management system than most Middle Eastern countries, similar to the other countries in the region, Iran is experiencing a serious water crisis. The government blames the current crisis on the changing climate, frequent droughts, and international sanctions, believing that water shortages are periodic. However, the dramatic water security issues of Iran are rooted in decades of disintegrated planning and managerial myopia. Iran has suffered from a symptom-based management paradigm, which mainly focuses on curing the problem symptoms rather than addressing the main causes. This paper reviews the current status of water resources in Iran and recognizes three major causes for the current water crisis: (1) rapid population growth and inappropriate spatial population distribution; (2) inefficient agriculture sector; and (3) mismanagement and thirst for development. The country is faced with serious challenges in the water sector, including but not limited to rising water demand and shortage, declining groundwater levels, deteriorating water quality, and increasing ecosystem losses. If immediate actions are not taken to address these issues, the situation could become more tragic in the near future. The paper suggests some crisis exit strategies that need to be immediately adopted to secure sustainable water resources, if Iran does not want to lose its international reputation for significant success in water resources management over thousands of years in an arid area of the world.

Recent studies suggest that possible global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture. Because of the ability of farmers to adapt , however, these changes are not likely to imperil world food production. Nevertheless, world production of all goods and services may decline, if climate change is severe enough or if

"Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost, benefits, and time forecasts for such projects are systematically over-optimistic in the planning phase. The underlying reasons for forecasting errors are grouped into three categories: delusions or honest mistakes; deceptions or strategic manipulation of information or processes; or bad luck. Delusion and deception have each been addressed in the management literature before, but here they are jointly considered for the first time. They are specifically applied to infrastructure problems in a manner that allows both academics and practitioners to understand and implement the suggested corrective procedures. The article provides a framework for analyzing the relative explanatory power of delusion and deception. It also suggests a simplified framework for analyzing the complex principal-agent relationships that are involved in the approval and construction of large infrastructure projects, which can be used to improve forecasts. Finally, the article illustrates reference class forecasting, an outside view de-biasing technique that has proven successful in overcoming both delusion and deception in private and public investment decisions.

Ð A sample of 283 cotton farmers in Northern China was surveyed in December 1999. Farmers that used cotton engineered to produce the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxin substantially reduced the use of pesticide without reducing the output/ha or quality of cotton. This resulted in substantial economic bene®ts for small farmers. Consumers did not bene®t directly. Farmers obtained the major share of bene®ts and because of weak intellectual property rights very little went back to government research institutes or foreign ®rms that developed these varieties. Farmers using Bt cotton reported fewer pesticide poisonings than those using conventional cotton. Ó

Human use of biomass has become a major component of the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. The use of land for biomass production (e.g. cropland) is among the most important pressures on biodiversity. At the same time, biomass is indispensable for humans as food, animal feed, raw material and energy source. In order to support research into these complex issues, we here present a comprehensive assessment of global socioeconomic biomass harvest, use and trade for the year 2000. We developed countrylevel livestock balances and a consistent set of factors to estimate flows of used biomass not covered by international statistics (e.g. grazed biomass, crop residues) and indirect flows (i.e. biomass destroyed during harvest but not used). We found that current global terrestrial biomass appropriation amounted to 18.7 billion tonnes dry matter per year (Pg/yr) or 16% of global terrestrial NPP of which 6.6 Pg/yr were indirect flows. Only 12% of the economically used plant biomass (12.1 Pg/yr) directly served as human food, while 58% were used as feed for livestock, 20% as raw material and 10% as fuelwood. There are considerable regional variations in biomass supply and use. Distinguishing 11 world regions, we found that extraction of used biomass ranged from 0.3 to 2.8 t/ha/yr, per-capita values varied between 1.2 and 11.7 t/cap/yr (dry matter). Aggregate global biomass trade amounted to 7.5% of all extracted biomass. An analysis of these regional patterns revealed that the level of biomass use per capita is determined by historically evolved patterns of land use and population density rather than by affluence or economic development status. Regions with low population density have the highest level of per-capita biomass use, high-density regions the lowest. Livestock, consuming 30-75% of all harvested biomass, is another important factor explaining regional variations in biomass use. Global biomass demand is expected to grow during the next decades; the article discusses some options and possible limitations related to such a scenario.

This study examines farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change in Guto Gidda and Sasigga districts of Oromia Regional National Statein Ethiopia. Primary data for the study were collected from 142 farm household heads drawn from  five kebeles of Sasiga district and four kebeles of Guto Gida district through structured questionnaire. Heckman two stage sample
selection model was employed to examine farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies to
climate change. Estimation result shows that farmers level of education (p=0.040), household
nonfarm income (p=0.030), livestock ownership (0.001), extension on crop and livestock
(p=0.000), household’s credit accessibility (p=0.001), perception of increase in temperature
(p=0.000) and perception of decrease in precipitation (p=0.000) significantly affect the
adaptation to climate change. Similarly, farmers’ perception of climate change was affected
significantly by information on climate (p=0.000),  farmer to farmer extension (p=0.009), local
agro \–ecology (p=0.002), number of relatives in development group (p=0.015) and perception
of change in duration of season (p=0.002).

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.

Farmer Field Schools (FFS) are an intensive training approach introduced in the last decade in many developing countries to promote knowledge and uptake of ecologically sensible production approaches, and in particular, integrated pest management which minimises pesticide use. Because of the high training cost, the viability of the program depends crucially on the effectiveness of knowledge diffusion from trained farmers to other farmers. This paper uses panel data from Indonesia to assess the extent of diffusion of knowledge regarding integrated pest management from trained farmers to other farmers. The results confirm that better knowledge leads indeed to reduced pesticide use, and that trained farmers make a modest gain in knowledge. However, there is no significant diffusion of knowledge to other farmers who reside in the same villages as the trained farmers. These results imply that revision in the training procedures and curriculum need to be considered if the FFS approach is to become viable and effective.

Microbial pathogens in food cause an estimated 6.5-33 million cases of human illness and up to 9,000 deaths in the United States each year. Over 40 different foodborne microbial pathogens, including fungi, viruses, parasites, and bacteria, are believed to cause human illnesses. For six bacterial pathogens, the costs of human illness are estimated to be $9.3-$12.9 billion annually. Of these costs, $2.9-$6.7 billion are attributed to foodborne bacteria. These estimates were developed to provide analytical support for USDA's Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) systems rule for meat and poultry. (Note that the parasite Toxoplasma gondii is not included in this report.) To estimate medical costs and productivity losses, ERS uses four severity categories for acute illnesses: those who did not visit a physician, visited a physician, were hospitalized, or died prematurely. The lifetime consequences of chronic disease are included in the cost estimates for E. coli O157:H7 and fetal listeriosis.

This paper seeks to quantify the extent to which Turkey has a comparative advantage in the tomato, olive oil, and fruit juice industries and how this has changed over the period 1995-2005 in the EU market. To study Turkey's competitiveness and its progress two widely used indexes are calculated: the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and the comparative export performance (CEP) index. In addition, import demand functions of the EU are estimated for rival countries. Using regression analysis we hypothesize that if Turkey is a competitor for these countries, its price will have a statistically significant effect on export demand functions. Both index and regression results indicate that Turkey has a strikingly high comparative advantage in the fruit juice and olive oil markets in the EU but this is not the case in the tomato market. JEL Classification Codes: Q10, Q17, F14.